Operation Dumbo

[bhertz]

My pop dropped and checks in went up.

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[Duke of DixonVille]

Hi Everyone,
Look, I have studied Statics and linear differential equations. I think with the right information I can plug it into this equation

dy/dx + P(x)y=Q(x)

and come up with a solution to the population problem we are experiencing. P and Q are the continuous function on a given interval, check-ins, and time frame. I won't go into all the details. Just need the numbers: check-ins, time frame, how many Elephant businesses, franchises, level you are on. If you sold and re franchised and how many times.

Thanks for your participation.

[bhertz]

Just got done with 100 check ins and 3 minute blitz for an hour:
Duke: I franchised 3 times rest of the information in the pic.

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[Amstel Bear Hugs]

Dec 10, 2012 11:46:26 GMT -5 Duke of DixonVille said:

Hi Everyone,
Look, I have studied Statics and linear differential equations. I think with the right information I can plug it into this equation

dy/dx + P(x)y=Q(x)

and come up with a solution to the population problem we are experiencing. P and Q are the continuous function on a given interval, check-ins, and time frame. I won't go into all the details. Just need the numbers: check-ins, time frame, how many Elephant businesses, franchises, level you are on. If you sold and re franchised and how many times.

Thanks for your participation.

Very impressive- however it still wouldn't be correct since we don't know how many people actually have the elephant business now. We also don't know how many checkins they do.


My WSECD pop is 4,395 this morning. I fogot to write down the number of checkins and don't have my iPad with me.

[Duke of DixonVille]

If we use a small statical sample group say our forum and others with the Elephant business as variables we could possibly find a common theme. It might be worth a try. What do you think?

[Raven]

Rofl! Honest !!!! Not in a mean way! I love it and math and stats so not my thing - so my admiration of you both knows no bounds
I will make every effort to contribute any information I can

[newzealander]

Dec 10, 2012 13:09:52 GMT -5 Duke of DixonVille said:

If we use a small statical sample group say our forum and others with the Elephant business as variables we could possibly find a common theme. It might be worth a try. What do you think?

Actually, Duke, I think you are on to something. My calculus is a little rusty, and certainly not to your level, but i did a few years of it at university. I think that as long as in our sample we make sure that y and dy are always proportional, so could then be extrapolated to any number of people who ACTUALLY own the business, we would be able to test it.

I am going to have a go using RHoS. It was 2000 popularity when I went to bed, and this morning it is 1731. I have done nothing. I am now going to do 100 check ins, then wait for the server to update, and give it a shot.

Edit: Derek has already done a few sums, using various positive integers as variables for the increase rate - he may be able to add to this.

[Precious]

WSECD- Pop 4,522 this morning and checkins show 6,532.

[derekville]

That's more or less what I was thinking, too, Duke. I think what we need to ascertain is the constant, k, which I think is about 0.871, but I have incomplete date because we don't know how many people had bought it before we started messing with it.

Do you think it matters if the number is approximate?

I was using a, b, c instead, but let's go with Duke's dy/dx + P(x)y = Q(x) as our working hypothesis.

I am not an expert on this but have read a few phds on econometrics.

[derekville]

Sorry, busy today, but this is what I get from MATLAB using .871...

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[Duke of DixonVille]

What would really help would be to know who originally bought it and if it was at 0 pop, 0 check-ins when they bought it. Then, we could take how long they owned it, if the majority of franchises were from there, and then the constant of ownership is easy it estimate based on that variable.


Derek your graphic shows a fluctuation of the major 3 business that are being franchised. So interesting. I need more data.

[Raven]

Ams bought it - for Sni and me cuz we love elephants - she might remember some details - her brain still works! Lol

[newzealander]

I'm impressed Derek and Duke. Derek, have you tried it using distance as the variable, and then extrapolating it using the number of franchises in place of y? I'm not as clued up on this stuff as you guys, but it just seems to me that the distance might explain that first peak.

[derekville]

You would not believe how many time a day I have to say 'don't eat mummy and daddy's antique tables.'

Distance is too difficult to factor in, given the limitations on the number of visible franchises, but I agree it is worth considering.

[Raven]

Hmmm - just left game - didnt write number down and can't remember it Heheheheheeee

[derekville]

I've pmed duke with everything I have, but some of it is estimates.

[newzealander]

Let me know if you come up with a way to make the remote control unattractive as a teething tool apart from keeping it in a locked cupboard until all teeth are present and accounted for.

I agree with Duke that without knowing the original zero pop and zero check-ins location, we are going to struggle to get the exact point that the integer becomes a negative, causing the first drops in popularity.

[derekville]

I am gonna give up at 2000 squirrels. Sick of tapping. Who has the most squirrels btw? I am on 1857.

[bhertz]

Good morning no real change:

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[bhertz]

Look at this drop since 6:30 am. Check ins up but pop dropped 300

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